Future Trends, Shocks, Contexts & Implications

"Joint Operating Environment 2008 -- Challenges and Implications for the Future Joint Force"
United States Joint Forces Command
November 25, 2008

Excerpt: In the broadest sense, the Joint Operating Environment examines three questions:

• What future trends and disruptions are likely to affect the Joint Force over the next quarter century?
• How are these trends and disruptions likely to define the future contexts for joint operations?
• What are the implications of these trends and contexts for the Joint Force?

The Joint Operating Environment (JOE) is our historically informed, forward-looking effort to discern most accurately the challenges we will face at the operational level of war, and to determine their inherent implications. We recognize that the future environment will not be precisely the one we describe; however, we are sufficiently confident of this study’s rigor that it can guide future concept development. While no study can get the future 100 percent correct, we believe it’s most important that we get it sufficiently right, and that the daunting challenge of perfection not paralyze our best efforts. When future war comes, our concept developers across the Armed Services should have the fewest regrets if today they study, challenge, and implement solutions to the security implications defined here in the JOE. In our line of work, having the fewest regrets defines success when the shocks of conflict bring the surprise that inevitably accompanies warfare.

What's News?:  Mexico as a "failed state"; Discussion of North Korea's nuclear program; Acknowledgement of Israel as a nuclear power.

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