Afghanistan -- Geospatial Analysis Reveals Patterns in Terrorist Incidents 2004-2008
Source: FAS Project on Government Secrecy
The Director of National Intelligence Open Source Center's geospatial analysis of incidents within the National Counterterrorism Center (NCTC) Worldwide Incidents Tracking System (WITS) database provides insight into terrorist incidents in Afghanistan reported in open sources from 2004 through the end of 2008 and compares them against an OSC-developed predictive model. Various types of analysis of the WITS data revealed spatial patterns and a distribution of incidents that would be valuable to those interested in the dynamics of Afghanistan's security. Analyses included in this study are as follows: mapping incident density, identifying the dominant ethnic group where incidents occurred, mapping incidents by district, mapping incidents by province, identifying the mean center of incidents over time, calculating the standard deviation (spatial pattern/trend) of overall incidents, mapping total incidents by month, and computing the mean center of incidents by month.
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